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US TSYS

Early Bid Holds

AUD

Still Heavy

JGB TECHS

(Z1) Holding Gains

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18   Jun-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        216/215  215/210  204/208  214/214  215/223  222/226
wk 2                                 210/212  202/206  212/216  208/221  221/225
wk 3                                 216/212  215/206  210/214  217/218  218/221
wk 4                                 215/214  207/207  213/212  219/214  228/222
wk 5                                 214/214           205/210           232/225
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +250k    +118k    +286k    +165k    +208k
Private Payrolls                       +246k    +121k    +267k    +137k    +192k
Mfg Payroll                             +32k     +18k     +11k     +22k     +21k
Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.9%     3.9%     4.0%
Avg Wkly Hours                          35.5     34.4     34.5     34.5     34.6
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.9     40.9     41.0     41.0
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%    -0.2%    +0.5%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                    Flat    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Avg Hourly Earnings                     +0.2    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.2%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.6%    +0.2%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.3%
excl food & energy                     +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%
CPI                                    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Import Prices                          +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.4%    -0.1%     Flat
non-petro import prices                +0.2%     Flat    -0.2%    -0.2%    -0.3%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                          66.9     72.1     73.2     76.8
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +2.0%    +2.2%    +2.3%    +2.3%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.2%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$100.5  +$119.1  -$214.1   -$76.9   -$74.9
Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$20.1   +$16.6    +$8.7
CB Consumer Confidence                 137.9    135.3    134.7    127.9    126.4
Consumer Sentiment                      98.6    100.1     96.2     97.6     98.2
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                     3.2      3.0      2.8      3.0      3.1
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn)                                     6.9      7.2      7.1      6.9      7.2
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                10.1     10.2      9.9      9.9     10.3
Retail Sales                           +0.8%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.7%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.8%    +0.3%
Personal Income                                          +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                                        +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.4%
ISM Mfg Index                           57.7     59.8     61.3     58.1     60.2
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          60.3     61.6     58.5     55.7     59.1
MNI Chicago Report                      58.4     60.4     63.6     65.5     64.1
Phila Fed Mfg Index                     22.2     22.9     11.9     25.7     19.9
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  37.6     37.4     41.7     44.3     39.1
Empire State Index                      21.1     19.0     25.6     22.6     25.0
KC Fed Mfg Index                           8       13       14       23       28
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    15       29       24       20       21
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    29.4     28.1     30.9     32.3     36.5
Markit Mfg Index                        55.7     55.6     54.7     55.3     55.4
Markit Services Index                   54.8     53.5     54.8     56.0     56.5
Ind Production                                  +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.6%
Capacity Util                                   78.1%    78.1%    77.9%    77.8%
Factory Orders                                  +0.7%    +2.6%    -0.5%    +0.6%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%
Durables                                        +0.8%    +4.6%    -1.2%    +0.9%
Durables ex transport                           +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%
Nondurables                                     +0.6%    +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.4%
Mfg Shipments                                   +0.9%    +0.7%     Flat    +1.0%
Business Inventories                            +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.7%    +0.1%
Factory                                         +0.5%    +0.1%    +0.8%    +0.2%
Retail                                          +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.6%    -0.1%
Wholesale                                       +0.4%    +0.9%    +0.6%    +0.1%
Housing Starts (mn)                             1.201    1.268    1.184    1.177
Building Permits (mn)                           1.270    1.249    1.303    1.292
NAHB Index                                         68       67       68       68
New Home Sales (k)                                553      585      603      618
Existing Homes (mn)                              5.15     5.33     5.34     5.38
Pending Home Sales Index                        104.6    104.1    106.1    107.0
Construct Spending                               Flat    +0.8%    +0.2%    -0.7%
Private Residential                             +0.6%    -0.4%    +0.7%    -0.7%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$54.0   -$53.3   -$50.0   -$45.7
Exports (bn)                                  +$212.6  +$209.4  +$211.1  +$213.2
Imports (bn)                                  +$266.6  +$262.7  +$261.2  +$258.9
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$77.2   -$76.6   -$73.2   -$68.9
Leading Index                                   +0.5%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.5%
                                                                           Q3-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                                             +3.5%
Final Sales                                                                +1.4%
Chain prices                                                               +1.7%
Current-dollar                                                             +4.9%
                                                                           Q3-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.2%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   +1.2%
                                                                           Q3-18
ECI (q/q)                                                                  +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
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