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US TSYS: Bull Flatter On Bessent Pick, 2s10s Near Zero

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have kept to reasonably narrow ranges since opening firmer and flatter in reaction to President-elect Trump picking Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary.
  • Cash yields are 2.5bps (2s) to 6bps (30s) lower. 10Y yields of 4.353% sit almost 15bp below mid-Nov recent highs of 4.501%.
  • 2s10s is at 0.3bps (-2.6bps) having earlier tilted back into inversion for the first time since Oct 7 with a low of -1.0bps.
  • TYZ4 trades at 109-30+ close to session lows although is still +10 on the day. It’s earlier high of 110-05 probed resistance at 110-04+ (20-day EMA).
  • Firmer clearance would open 111-09 (50-day EMA) but the bear cycle is seen remaining in play with support at 108-30 (1.236 proj of Oct 1-10-16 swing).
  • Data: Chicago Fed national activity Oct (0830ET), Dallas Fed mfg Nov (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US to sell $69bn of 2Y notes – 91282CLY5 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US to sell $81bn 13-w bills and $72bn 26-w bills (1130ET), US to sell $40bn 30-day CMB (1300ET)
US 2s10s   Source: Bloomberg
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  • Treasuries have kept to reasonably narrow ranges since opening firmer and flatter in reaction to President-elect Trump picking Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary.
  • Cash yields are 2.5bps (2s) to 6bps (30s) lower. 10Y yields of 4.353% sit almost 15bp below mid-Nov recent highs of 4.501%.
  • 2s10s is at 0.3bps (-2.6bps) having earlier tilted back into inversion for the first time since Oct 7 with a low of -1.0bps.
  • TYZ4 trades at 109-30+ close to session lows although is still +10 on the day. It’s earlier high of 110-05 probed resistance at 110-04+ (20-day EMA).
  • Firmer clearance would open 111-09 (50-day EMA) but the bear cycle is seen remaining in play with support at 108-30 (1.236 proj of Oct 1-10-16 swing).
  • Data: Chicago Fed national activity Oct (0830ET), Dallas Fed mfg Nov (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US to sell $69bn of 2Y notes – 91282CLY5 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US to sell $81bn 13-w bills and $72bn 26-w bills (1130ET), US to sell $40bn 30-day CMB (1300ET)
US 2s10s   Source: Bloomberg