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US TSYS: Modest Further Sell-Off Since 1000ET Data

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have continued to sell off since the US data, which saw a heavy miss for new home sales faded by signs of storm disruption along with confirmation of the highest Conf. Board consumer confidence reading since Dec 2021 and improved labor details (albeit after a downward revision).
  • Yields are 1-1.5bp higher since the 1000ET data, led by 10s, for 3.3-4.2bp higher on the day.
  • TYZ4 has recently touched session lows of 110-05+ before lifting two ticks. It broadly continues to pull back from yesterday’s high of 110-18 in what was deemed a corrective play. Support is seen at 109-14+ (Nov 20/21 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates have nudged 1-1.5bp higher for meetings out to mid-2025, with 13bp of cuts for Dec and a cumulative 18bp for Jan and 49bp for June.
  • Still to come, 5Y supply after yesterday’s strongest 2Y auction since July (which included the second lowest primary dealer take on record) before the FOMC minutes.
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  • Treasuries have continued to sell off since the US data, which saw a heavy miss for new home sales faded by signs of storm disruption along with confirmation of the highest Conf. Board consumer confidence reading since Dec 2021 and improved labor details (albeit after a downward revision).
  • Yields are 1-1.5bp higher since the 1000ET data, led by 10s, for 3.3-4.2bp higher on the day.
  • TYZ4 has recently touched session lows of 110-05+ before lifting two ticks. It broadly continues to pull back from yesterday’s high of 110-18 in what was deemed a corrective play. Support is seen at 109-14+ (Nov 20/21 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates have nudged 1-1.5bp higher for meetings out to mid-2025, with 13bp of cuts for Dec and a cumulative 18bp for Jan and 49bp for June.
  • Still to come, 5Y supply after yesterday’s strongest 2Y auction since July (which included the second lowest primary dealer take on record) before the FOMC minutes.