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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Lower Ahead Of Retail Sales & Fed Speak

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures have continued to edge lower throughout the session although we do trade slightly off the morning lows. TU is -03+ at 102-18⅛, while TY is -09+ at 109-08, we still trade just off Thursday lows.
  • Tsys yields have continued to rise through the Asian session, the curve has bear-steepened with yields +0.5 to +2.5bps. The 10yr is +2.6bps at 4.461% after hitting new highs of 4.48% overnight.
  • Projected rate cuts have continued to cool throughout the Asian session following Powell's comments vs Thursday's levels (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -14.7bp (-19.8bp), Jan'25 -21.7bp (-27.8bp), Mar'25 -35.8bp (-42.4bp), May'25 -42.5bp (-49.9bp).
  • The weakness in yields comes following Powell's hawkish comments where he mentioned that the central bank does not need to hurry in cutting interest rates saw bets on future rate cuts cool this morning, with fed futures now pricing in just a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in December with no full cut until March 2025.
  • The 2s10s curve is +2bps at 10.5 today, after the curve flattened about 10bps overnight, while the 2s30s is +2.5bps at 25.8 flattening from 35bps overnight.
  • There will be more fed speak tonight with Goolsbee (Chicago), Collins (Boston),  Williams (New York) and  Barkin (Richmond) to speak
  • Later today we have Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Industrial Production
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  • Tsys futures have continued to edge lower throughout the session although we do trade slightly off the morning lows. TU is -03+ at 102-18⅛, while TY is -09+ at 109-08, we still trade just off Thursday lows.
  • Tsys yields have continued to rise through the Asian session, the curve has bear-steepened with yields +0.5 to +2.5bps. The 10yr is +2.6bps at 4.461% after hitting new highs of 4.48% overnight.
  • Projected rate cuts have continued to cool throughout the Asian session following Powell's comments vs Thursday's levels (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -14.7bp (-19.8bp), Jan'25 -21.7bp (-27.8bp), Mar'25 -35.8bp (-42.4bp), May'25 -42.5bp (-49.9bp).
  • The weakness in yields comes following Powell's hawkish comments where he mentioned that the central bank does not need to hurry in cutting interest rates saw bets on future rate cuts cool this morning, with fed futures now pricing in just a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in December with no full cut until March 2025.
  • The 2s10s curve is +2bps at 10.5 today, after the curve flattened about 10bps overnight, while the 2s30s is +2.5bps at 25.8 flattening from 35bps overnight.
  • There will be more fed speak tonight with Goolsbee (Chicago), Collins (Boston),  Williams (New York) and  Barkin (Richmond) to speak
  • Later today we have Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Industrial Production