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US TSYS: Tsys Futures See Late Selling Pressure, Focus Turns To Jobless Claims

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures were under pressure heading into the close overnight, although still trade off session lows. Initial weakness was seen following bigger-than-expected September ADP employment change and upward revision to August’s, curves continued to steepen following a decent size 2yr & 5yr blocks trading the move paused following a large Ultra block trading.
  • TU closed -0-01⅜ at 104-04⅜, while TY closed -0-08+ at 114-13+
  • ADP employment was stronger than expected in September at 143k (cons 125k) after a slightly upward revised 103k (initial 99k) in August. The data has had mixed success at tracking private payrolls growth, undershooting private payrolls growth by 15k in August but before that overshooting by 37k in July and 58k in June.
  • Cash tsys curves steepened overnight, with yields trading 3-6bps higher, largely reversing Tuesday's moves. The 2yr closed -+3.7bps at 3.641%, while the 10yr closed +5bps at 3.781%. The 2s10s closed 1.226 at 13.538.
  • Projected rate cuts continue to back off this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -33.8bp (-34.4bp), Dec'24 -69.9bp (-70.5bp), Jan'25 -100.4bp (-101.9bp).
  • Today focus will be on Weekly Claims, Factory/Durable Goods Orders and ISM Services, followed by Friday's headline Non-Farm Payrolls for September.
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  • Tsys futures were under pressure heading into the close overnight, although still trade off session lows. Initial weakness was seen following bigger-than-expected September ADP employment change and upward revision to August’s, curves continued to steepen following a decent size 2yr & 5yr blocks trading the move paused following a large Ultra block trading.
  • TU closed -0-01⅜ at 104-04⅜, while TY closed -0-08+ at 114-13+
  • ADP employment was stronger than expected in September at 143k (cons 125k) after a slightly upward revised 103k (initial 99k) in August. The data has had mixed success at tracking private payrolls growth, undershooting private payrolls growth by 15k in August but before that overshooting by 37k in July and 58k in June.
  • Cash tsys curves steepened overnight, with yields trading 3-6bps higher, largely reversing Tuesday's moves. The 2yr closed -+3.7bps at 3.641%, while the 10yr closed +5bps at 3.781%. The 2s10s closed 1.226 at 13.538.
  • Projected rate cuts continue to back off this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -33.8bp (-34.4bp), Dec'24 -69.9bp (-70.5bp), Jan'25 -100.4bp (-101.9bp).
  • Today focus will be on Weekly Claims, Factory/Durable Goods Orders and ISM Services, followed by Friday's headline Non-Farm Payrolls for September.