CORRECTED-MNI: Fed's Hammack-Near Or At Time To Slow Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Rates Fair Bit Lower In A Year

CANADA JOBLESS RATE +6.8% VS FORECAST +6.6%, PRIOR +6.5%

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 6

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY288.1 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1848 Fri; -1.64% Y/Y

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady With Ranges Narrow

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges throughout the day, and now trade little changed for the session. TU is +00¼ at 103-14¾, while TY is -00+ at 112-13+.
  • looking at technicals the 10y contracts remains in a downtrend despite a small bounce. Initial support is 111-14 (50% retracement for the Apr - Sep bull leg), while initial resistance is at 112-21 (Oct 21 high).
  • Cash tsys curves did steepen a touch earlier however we now trade little changed for the session. The 2yr is 3.950%, while the 10yr is 4.034%.
  • Earlier today, the Fed's Bostic spoke where he mentioned he expects the US economy to slow this year but remain resilient, with GDP growth forecasted at around 2.6% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. He anticipates the Fed's benchmark interest rate to fall to 3%-3.5% in the long term, though the timing depends on labor market conditions and inflation, which he expects to remain volatile.
  • Fed fund pricing has held steady throughout the session, the market is pricing in 24.3bps of cut in November, or about 97% chance of a cut while 45.4bps is priced in by the December meeting. Looking further out the curve, the market is pricing 144bps of cut by Oct 2025.
  • Trump continues to firm as favorite for the upcoming Election with betting firm Polymarket now showing 58.1% vs 41.7% in his favor, while PredictIt has it a bit closer at a 54% change Trump will win, with both at the highest points post the last debate.
  • later today we have September import/export prices - which feed into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge - and a Fox interview of Vice President Harris.
272 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges throughout the day, and now trade little changed for the session. TU is +00¼ at 103-14¾, while TY is -00+ at 112-13+.
  • looking at technicals the 10y contracts remains in a downtrend despite a small bounce. Initial support is 111-14 (50% retracement for the Apr - Sep bull leg), while initial resistance is at 112-21 (Oct 21 high).
  • Cash tsys curves did steepen a touch earlier however we now trade little changed for the session. The 2yr is 3.950%, while the 10yr is 4.034%.
  • Earlier today, the Fed's Bostic spoke where he mentioned he expects the US economy to slow this year but remain resilient, with GDP growth forecasted at around 2.6% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. He anticipates the Fed's benchmark interest rate to fall to 3%-3.5% in the long term, though the timing depends on labor market conditions and inflation, which he expects to remain volatile.
  • Fed fund pricing has held steady throughout the session, the market is pricing in 24.3bps of cut in November, or about 97% chance of a cut while 45.4bps is priced in by the December meeting. Looking further out the curve, the market is pricing 144bps of cut by Oct 2025.
  • Trump continues to firm as favorite for the upcoming Election with betting firm Polymarket now showing 58.1% vs 41.7% in his favor, while PredictIt has it a bit closer at a 54% change Trump will win, with both at the highest points post the last debate.
  • later today we have September import/export prices - which feed into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge - and a Fox interview of Vice President Harris.