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Japan Aug Machine Orders -1.9% M/M

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AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady With Ranges Narrow

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges throughout the day, and now trade little changed for the session. TU is +00¼ at 103-14¾, while TY is -00+ at 112-13+.
  • looking at technicals the 10y contracts remains in a downtrend despite a small bounce. Initial support is 111-14 (50% retracement for the Apr - Sep bull leg), while initial resistance is at 112-21 (Oct 21 high).
  • Cash tsys curves did steepen a touch earlier however we now trade little changed for the session. The 2yr is 3.950%, while the 10yr is 4.034%.
  • Earlier today, the Fed's Bostic spoke where he mentioned he expects the US economy to slow this year but remain resilient, with GDP growth forecasted at around 2.6% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. He anticipates the Fed's benchmark interest rate to fall to 3%-3.5% in the long term, though the timing depends on labor market conditions and inflation, which he expects to remain volatile.
  • Fed fund pricing has held steady throughout the session, the market is pricing in 24.3bps of cut in November, or about 97% chance of a cut while 45.4bps is priced in by the December meeting. Looking further out the curve, the market is pricing 144bps of cut by Oct 2025.
  • Trump continues to firm as favorite for the upcoming Election with betting firm Polymarket now showing 58.1% vs 41.7% in his favor, while PredictIt has it a bit closer at a 54% change Trump will win, with both at the highest points post the last debate.
  • later today we have September import/export prices - which feed into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge - and a Fox interview of Vice President Harris.
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  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges throughout the day, and now trade little changed for the session. TU is +00¼ at 103-14¾, while TY is -00+ at 112-13+.
  • looking at technicals the 10y contracts remains in a downtrend despite a small bounce. Initial support is 111-14 (50% retracement for the Apr - Sep bull leg), while initial resistance is at 112-21 (Oct 21 high).
  • Cash tsys curves did steepen a touch earlier however we now trade little changed for the session. The 2yr is 3.950%, while the 10yr is 4.034%.
  • Earlier today, the Fed's Bostic spoke where he mentioned he expects the US economy to slow this year but remain resilient, with GDP growth forecasted at around 2.6% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. He anticipates the Fed's benchmark interest rate to fall to 3%-3.5% in the long term, though the timing depends on labor market conditions and inflation, which he expects to remain volatile.
  • Fed fund pricing has held steady throughout the session, the market is pricing in 24.3bps of cut in November, or about 97% chance of a cut while 45.4bps is priced in by the December meeting. Looking further out the curve, the market is pricing 144bps of cut by Oct 2025.
  • Trump continues to firm as favorite for the upcoming Election with betting firm Polymarket now showing 58.1% vs 41.7% in his favor, while PredictIt has it a bit closer at a 54% change Trump will win, with both at the highest points post the last debate.
  • later today we have September import/export prices - which feed into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge - and a Fox interview of Vice President Harris.