-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessUS TSYS: UNCONVINCING RISK ON AS EQUITIES MARCH HIGHER
US TSY SUMMARY: Tsys hold weaker levels across the curve, near mid-range on
light futures volume (TYM<920k), yld curves steeper but well off first half
highs. US$ index near lows (DXY -.110, 97.196); US equities making session highs
late (SPX +36.25, 2788.25).
- Disappointingly quiet FI trade to kick off the week -- not really a risk-off
move though equities are extending session highs late. Focus on Brexit talks as
PM May travels to Strasbourg to drum up support w/EU's Juncker. Support in GBP
on "positive" talk headlines -- tempered on follow-up headlines walking back
positive tone.
- Tsys started day on back foot, taking cue from weaker EGBs. Better selling
across the curve after better than expected Jan retail sales--followed by dip
buying on down-revision for Dec number, a near wash. Two-way flow from props and
fast$, in front end, real$ sellers in 10s, swap-tied selling in 2s-5s, modest
deal-tied flow in the mix.
- Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 100-01.25 (2.477%), 5Y 99-21.75 (2.442%), 10Y 99-27
(2.641%), 30Y 99-11.5 (3.032%).
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Very quiet start to the week. Tsys weaker after the bell
but near middle of session range amid very light volume (TYM<900k) -- Curves
mildly steeper/off highs, update:
* 2s10s +0.243, 16.383 (15.794L/17.800H);
* 2s30s +0.902, 55.381 (53.981L/56.628H);
* 5s30s +0.906, 58.896 (57.468L/59.770H);
Current futures levels:
* Jun Ultra bonds down 20/32 at 161-13 (160-30L/162-03H)
* Jun 30-yr Bond futures down 10/32 at 145-21 (145-11L/146-00H)
* Jun 10-yr futures down 4.5/32 at 122-20 (122-17L/122-25H)
* Jun 5-yr futures down 2.5/32 at 114-27.5 (114-26.25L/114-30.25H)
* Jun 2-yr futures down .75/32 at 106-05 (106-04.62L/106-06H)
US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Modestly weaker across the strip -- near middle of
range. Current White pack (Mar'19-Dec'19):
* Mar'19 -0.010 at 97.390
* Jun'19 -0.005 at 97.385
* Sep'19 -0.010 at 97.385
* Dec'19 -0.015 at 97.365
* Red pack (Mar'19-Dec'20) -0.025-0.030
* Green pack (Mar'20-Dec'21) -0.025-0.015
* Blue pack (Mar'21-Dec'21) -0.015-0.010
* Gold pack (Mar'22-Dec'22) -0.015
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles
* O/N +0.0034 to 2.3902% (+0.0020 last wk)
* 1 Month +0.0073 to 2.4988% (+0.0096 last wk)
* 3 Month +0.0116 to 2.6082% (-0.0019 last wk)
* 6 Month +0.0002 to 2.6792% (-0.0030 last wk)
* 1 Year +0.0054 to 2.8690% (-0.0154 last wk)
US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.39%, $954B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.36%, $468B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.36%, $454B
US SWAPS: Spds steady/mixed by the bell -- well off midday wides amid receiving
in 3s and 7s in second half, deal-tied unwinds. Front end lead move in first
half amid better rate paying in 2s-5s, receivers in 7s at 2.55975%. Latest spd
lelvels:
Time (ET) 2Y Swap/Mid 5Y Swap/Mid 10Y Swap/Mid 30Y Swap/Mid
Mon 3:00 +0.31/12.25 -0.06/7.44 +0.10/2.00 +0.00/-19.75
12:30 +0.62/12.56 +0.38/7.88 +0.35/2.25 +0.12/-19.62
10:15 +0.81/12.75 +0.38/7.88 +0.22/2.12 +0.12/-19.62
Mon Open +0.19/12.19 +0.12/7.62 -0.09/1.81 -0.31/-20.06
Mon 7:15 +0.00/11.94 -0.12/7.38 -0.15/1.75 -0.31/-20.06
Fri 3:00 +0.12/12.00 +0.12/7.62 +0.00/1.88 +0.19/-19.81
OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
12-Mar 0600 Feb NFIB Small Business Index (101.2, --)
12-Mar 0830 Feb CPI (0.0%, 0.2%)
12-Mar 0830 Feb CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.2%, 0.2)
12-Mar 0845 Fed Brd of Govs' Brainard, "Just Economy" Conf, D.C, Q&A
12-Mar 0855 09-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m
12-Mar 1300 US TSY $24B 10Y note auction (9128286B1)
PIPELINE: Gradual pick-up, $20-25B estimated for week
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:
03/11 $1.25B #Oneok Inc. WNG 10Y +175, 30Y +223
03/11 $950m #Relx Capital 10Y +150
03/11 $600m #Dominion Energy 10Y +123, 30Y +158
03/11 $500M Kommunalbanken 2Y FRN L+4a
03/11 $Benchmark World Bank 5Y +7a
03/11 $Benchmark BB&T 3Y +60a, 10Y +125a
Eurodollar/Tsy options:
Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:
* total +60,000 Red Jun 85/87 call spds, 1.25/legged
* +25,000 Dec 77 calls 1.5 over the Sep 72 puts
* +10,000 Sep 68 puts, 0.5 vs. 97.36/0.05% earlier
* +18,000 Sep 67 puts, cab on screen
* +30,000 Dec 77 calls 3.75/splits vs. 97.375/0.14% vs.
* -30,000 Sep 72 puts, 2.5 vs. 97.39/0.18%
* 5,000 Sep 72 puts w/10,000 Sep 75 calls, 10.0 total
* 2,000 short Apr 76/77/78 call flys, 1.0
Block, 0903:01-:21ET and 0907:22-:47ET,
* total -40,000 short Sep 77/81 call spds, 6.0
* total +40,000 Green Sep 77/81 call spds, 8.0
* 2.0 net db conditional, bull curve (Reds/Greens) flattener
Block, 0856:58ET, adds to 20k block sale on Friday at 2.0
* +10,000 short Jul 71/73 put spds, 4.0
* -10,000 short Jul 76/78 call spds, 5.0
* 4,000 Red Sep'20 97.545
* +15,000 Dec/Red Mar'20 71/72 put spd strip, 7.0-6.75
* +10,000 Red Jun'20 85/87 call spds, 1.25
* 1,000 Jun 72/73 2x3 call spds, 4.0
Tsy options, Pit/screen:
* 4,500 TYJ 121.25/122 2x1 put spds, 3/64
* 2,000 TYJ 121.5/122.5 put spds, 29/64
* 3,500 TYJ 122.25/122.75 2x1 put spds, 0.0 on screen
* -3,000 TYJ 123.5 calls at 4/64 earlier
* +12,000 TYJ 121.5 puts, 2/64 -- lifts off/goes bid
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.