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US TSYS: Yields Lower On Tsy Borrowing Ests

US TSYS

TYH4 is trading at 111-19+, + 03+ from NY closing levels

Tsy futures as well as stocks extended session highs after the Treasury cut Jan-March borrow est's from $816B to $760B, and estimates April-June at $202bn. The refunding announcement is scheduled for Wednesday at 0830ET.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures (TYH4 tapped 111-23 high, +22) continues to see-saw near the top end of range since January 18. Initial technical resistance at 112-01+ (High Jan 17).
  • In Cash yields the 2Y yield traded to low of 4.306% while the 10Y traded back to Jan 18th level of 4.0568%.
  • Focus remains on this weeks FOMC announcement, no action expected from the Fed Wednesday, but dealer estimates of when and by how much is varied (GS: 25bp cut in March, 5 total cuts in 2024 to 4.25%; DB 3.75% by year end, UBS 2.75% year end; flipside: Santander est's 50bp by year end to 5%).
  • Data Tonight: House Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Job Openings
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