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CNY Fixing Trend Neutral, CNH Outperforms Safe Havens

CNH

The CNY fixing printed at 6.6651, very close to market expectations of 6.6648

  • Today's fix continues the recent trend of very benign outcomes. The surprise was just +3pips in USD/CNY terms.
  • For the past 5 days the cumulative surprise is now just -9pips. i.e. very close to neutral levels. We were negative for all of May on this metric.
  • USD/CNH has been relatively steady in early trade today, holding close to the 6.6750 level.
  • CNH has outperformed against the majors though, particularly EUR and JPY, showing less sensitivity to the UST yield bounce in the past 24 hours.
  • Yesterday's better than expected PMI prints also helped, while China equity sentiment has improved. The China Golden Dragon Index rose for the last 4 trading sessions of May, to post its first monthly rise since October last year.
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