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CNY Fixing Trend Modestly Weaker

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 6.7098 versus a market estimate of 6.7093.

  • Today's fix was a +5pip surprise in USD/CNY terms. This follows yesterday's +17pip surprise.
  • The 5-day sum of the fixing error is back to +47pips from +13pips yesterday. This largely reflects last Friday's -29pip surprise rolling out of the calculation.
  • The chart below plots the evolution of this 5 day sum for 2022. We have seen a modest push higher in recent weeks, and we are comfortably above early May lows on this metric.
  • USD/CNH hasn’t reacted a great deal to the fix. We are back around 6.6960, a touch weaker on the day in CNH terms. However, CNH is underperforming broader USD weakness, with the DXY down nearly 0.30% for the session so far.

Fig 1: USD/CNY Fixing Error - 5 Day Rolling Sum

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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