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USD/IDR 1-Month NDF Soften Amid Continued Gains For Palm Oil

IDR

Spot USD/IDR changes hands +9 figs at IDR15,202 and initial topside technical focus remains on Oct 4 high of IDR15,309. Bears need a dip through Sep 30 low of IDR15,150 before targeting the 100-DMA at IDR14,869.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -12 figs at IDR15,211. Bears eye support from the 100-DMA at IDR14,887, while bulls look for a rebound towards Oct 3 high of IDR15,394.
  • Palm oil futures gain for the sixth straight day, with the most active contract last trading +MYR120/MT, as the aggregate Bloomberg Commodity Index extends its recent upswing.
  • Indonesia's yield curve remains flatter since the central bank announced the implementation of its own version of "Operation Twist" on August 23. INDOGB 5-Year/10-Year yield spread last sits at ~54bp, struggling to stage a convincing rebound from cyclical flats printed in the wake of August monetary policy review.
  • Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium (last 149.9bp) remains elevated, operating close to recent cyclical highs of 163.7/164.4bp.

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