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Strong Outperformance Against EU Crosses

JPY

USD/JPY spent the post Asia close generally on the back foot, although we couldn't break back down through 135.50 and tracked out familiar ranges. The early tone today though has been downside, with the pair breaking down through 135.50.

  • JPY saw strong outperformance against EU crosses overnight. The plunge in EU yields as recession fears mount a major a driver overnight.
  • EUR/JPY dipped just below 139.00 (last 139.10), note the 50 day MA comes in at just above 139.02. We had a number of false breaks below this level in May.
  • NOK/JPY fell just over 2% in the past 24 hours and is now back sub 13.50. The plunge in oil prices accentuated the risk off move in this pair.
  • USD/JPY may have seen greater downside, if not for late US equity rebound and steady VIX levels closing levels relative to yesterday.
  • USD/JPY still looks too high relative to US yields, but the short term focus will be on whether we can sustain this break of 135.50. On the topside, note yesterday's highs around 136.30/35.
  • The local data calendar is quiet today.

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