USD/JPY Below Bear Trigger, 1 Week Implied Vol Close To 2022 Highs

Yen led all comers in the G10 space through Thursday. We got sub 129.00 late in NY trade before some support emerged, the pair last around 129.20/25, +2.4% firmer in yen terms for the session. Lower core yields helped yen sentiment, although speculation around further policy shifts at next week's BoJ meeting arguably remains a more dominant driver.

• Reports yesterday that the BoJ will examine the side effects of its large scale stimulus at next week's policy meeting continued to benefit the yen post the Asia close yesterday.
• A Bloomberg survey showed that economist expectations are shifting towards BoJ policy changes in Q2 of this year, with 38% of 43 economists surveyed forecasting such action (i.e. when a new Governor takes over). This is up from 15% from the previous poll in December.
• For USD/JPY 1 week implied vol continues to spike higher, getting close to 22%, last just under 21%.
• USD/JPY has now traded through the bear trigger at 129.52, additionally, moving average patterns could add further weight, with the 50- and 200-dmas on the cusp of forming a bearish death cross. Support seen scant until 128.44, the 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing.
• On the data front today, money stock figures print, along with weekly investment flow data.