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USD Loses Ground As Equities Rally To Start The Week

FOREX
  • Firmer price action for major equity benchmarks have kept the greenback on the backfoot on Monday, with a very busy week of data and event risk ahead. The USD index slides 0.4% to start the week, with the associated gains broadly spread out among other G10 currencies.
  • The most notable move on the session came for USDJPY as Nikkei headlines surfaced ahead of the Bank of Japan decision overnight. Reports the BOJ may allow further flexibility in yield movements bolstered the Japanese Yen and saw USDJPY fall from around 149.75 all the way down to fresh lows of 148.81 amid the broader greenback offer. The 20-day EMA has been breached, exposing the 50-day EMA as next support, at 147.98.
  • The very early dip for EURUSD was associated with some lower-than-expected state level inflation data in Germany. However, as the session progressed, the more benign inflation data and the positive equity backdrop filtered through to a consistent grind higher for the pair. While EURUSD remains below 1.0694, technical conditions remain in bearish territory.
  • AUD and NZD are among the session's best performers, rising over 0.5%. Market moves were underpinned by Australia's September retail sales, which topped expectations at 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.3%. Resultingly, AUD/USD trades back above 0.6350 and is narrowing in on the 50-dma resistance of 0.6395. Clearance here could be one of the first signs of a bullish reversal off the 0.6270 bottom, however the medium-term downtrend remains intact.
  • China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs kick off the docket overnight before the aforementioned BOJ policy decision. Eurozone inflation then takes focus before Canada GDP and US employment cost index figures. Later in the session, the MNI Chicago PMI and consumer confidence for the US are scheduled.

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