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Free AccessUSD/RUB Back Below 76, But Ukraine Headline Risks Keep Outright RUB Longs Tentative
- USD/RUB opens below 76.00 after a snap reversal yesterday post-Biden-Putin phone call eased concerns about escalating US-Russia tensions.
- USD/RUB fell 10 big figures on the headlines as embedded risk premia unwound, with positive momentum supported by $ selling and firmer oil prices filtering through into today's session.
- Brent futures notched higher following a larger than expected API inventories draw at -3.5m bbls vs -2.9 exp, but has been tempered somewhat by vaccine difficulties.
- Going forward, RUB assets will continue to be affected by Ukraine headline risks – although significant signs of de-escalation are emerging.
- NATO has brushed off Ukraine's attempts at accession thus far, Ukraine has urged diplomatic solutions and Russia has argued for the Minsk Agreement – all calming factors.
- As noted earlier, sanctions risks for SolarWinds and election meddling remain a key tail risk that could derail recent RUB optimism.
- Markets have seemingly offset the Putin "killer" comments from Biden in this recent move, but the sell side is still relatively cautious RE outright RUB longs at this juncture.
- Intraday Sup1: 75.3544, Sup2: 74.9221, Res1: 75.9284, Res2: 76.4367
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.