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Free AccessUSD/RUB Gaps Higher as Risk-Off Hits EMFX, Oil Takes Out July Lows
- USD/RUB opens +0.36% higher this morning on the back of early BBDXY strength and a ~2.15% sell-off in oil markets. Brent remains technically weak after breaking the July 20 low at $66.91, opening up $65.00 to the downside.
- Moreover, a surprise EIA inventory build at +696k vs -1.79m exp did little to support the weakening demand outlook.
- PPI & Weekly CPI data came out flat to lower vs previous metrics but printed slightly above expectations yesterday – resulting in a +5bp uptick in 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads (now +35bp).
- While this supports CBR forecasts for moderating inflation, its not quite the levels the market was expecting – which will likely keep markets cautious in calling the decline too early.
- Price action will remain volatile today as markets digest a potentially expedited taper timeline from the FOMC minutes – retaining a bias for USD strength in the near-term.
- USD/RUB has moved through its 100dma, and may run into resistance around the 200dma at 74.3797.
- Intraday Sup1: 73.9435, Sup2: 73.7458, Res1: 74.2486, Res2: 74.3985
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.