Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
USD
US data was weaker across the board overnight. Notably, the Philly Fed business outlook slipped to -3.3 versus 5.0 expected and 2.6 in May. This continues the recent poor run of US data outcomes.
- The Citi US EASI index is now at fresh lows going back to 2020, see the first chart below. The wedge with the EU EASI continues to widen.
- We noted yesterday that the extent to which US financial conditions had tightened could weigh on the data outlook.
- Interestingly though, the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcaster edged back up, although it remains close to flat.
Fig 1: Citi US & EU EASI
Source: Citi, MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- At face value, the decline in the Philly Fed survey points to downside risks for the next ISM print, see the second chart below.
- There was a decent divergence in May though, so that is a clear caveat going into the June ISM print.
Fig 2: Philly Fed Survey & US ISM
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- Weaker data outcomes have played some role in US yield retracement over recent sessions, which in turn has weighed on USD performance, particularly against the safe havens/low yielders.
- This is a theme to be mindful of for coming weeks, although clearly today will be dominated by the BoJ meeting.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok