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USD/TRY Approaches Double Figures as Risk-Off Dominates & the CBRT Approaches

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.84% higher this morning, retaining its bullish bias from yesterday's session as price action approaches the 10.00 psychological level.
  • The cross rose +1.16% in yesterday's session, spurred on by a technical break through resistance and a notably higher US CPI print that saw ZAR & TRY sell-off sharply.
  • With the CBRT just one week away, TRY should remain vulnerable as markets price in further cuts to the tune of at least 100bp – pressing deeper into negative real yield territory.
  • Current account data came in better than expected today at $1.652bn vs 1.25bn exp reflecting a more robust BOP.
  • However, this is largely due to a sharp fall in gold exports and not expected to last, given Turkey's renewed easing cycle and expectations for elevated energy prices next year.
  • Momentum in USD/TRY remains firmly higher going into next week's CBRT, but will need to make a consolidated break of the 10.00 handle before moving towards the 10.20-10.50 zone.
  • Intraday Sup1: 9.8757, Sup2: 9.8382, Res1: 10.00, 10.0724
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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