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USD/TRY Back Above 8.50 as Risk-Off Hits EM FX

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades mostly flat around the open, despite broadly weaker sentiment filtering through from the APAC session with Asian equity indices sharply lower.
  • The cross returned above 8.50 in yesterday's session (+0.77%) as post-CBRT optimism unwound on the expedited taper timelines from the FOMC minutes. With no major data on the domestic agenda today, price action will likely continue to e dominated by USD-side factors and global risk sentiment.
  • The cross has moved back above the 100dma after finding support at 8.40, and needs to break 8.5434 resistance (03 Nov 2020 high) to initiate a move towards the 50dma at 8.5944.
  • Focus remains on the next CPI print and CBRT meeting as markets remain concerned about TRY instability and CBRT credibility, should the CBRT fail to deliver additional tightening in response to potentially higher CPI.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.48883, Sup2" 8.4533, Res1: 8.5516, Res2: 8.5875
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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