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- USD/TRY trades slightly higher at the open, following a sustained move lower following US CPI which failed to inspire hawkish bets from the market, despite printing higher than expectations.
- Buying pressure in local bonds bolstered TRY, bringing the cross back below the 8.50 handle.
- Focus today will be on industrial production, expected to improve substantially y/y at 63.1%.
- Markets will look to next week, however, where Erdogan will meet Biden on Monday and the CBRT delivers its key rate decision on Thursday.
- So far, Turkey has expressed optimism RE the Biden meeting, while the US has remained cagey on S-400s and human rights violations.
- Erdogan will be cognizant of his waning domestic support base and need for favourable relations to support the economy, but is unlikely to bow and scrape to the US on these key issues.
- Turkey has demanded access to Patriot systems as the pre-condition for giving up its S-400s.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.4186, Sup2: 8.3984, Res1: 8.4851, Res2: 8.5414