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USD/TRY Drifts Lower, But Analysts Remain Cautious on Hyperinflation Risks

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades -0.55% lower this morning, dipping below 12.00 in early trading as markets continue to digest Erdogan’s new policies and their potential impacts.
  • The cross fell -4.02% in yesterday’s session with most of the move coming late last night in response to USD weakness.
  • Analysts across the board remain cautious on recent TRY strength , given the implicit risks of hyperinflation and credibility in the CBRT/Govt backstopping FX losses on deposits.
  • Most argue that the current period of artificial stability will be short-lived, unless new complementary measures are delivered to counter inflation alongside rate hikes, which Erdogan has pushed back against vehemently.
  • The CBRT minutes will come out today at around 1100GMT, but are unlikely to provide any major surprises.
  • Gross FX reserve data will be eyed for signs of CBRT intervention activity, however. USD/TRY continues to grind lower, but may find firm resistance around the 21 Dec low at 11.0990.
  • Intraday Sup1: 11.6095, Sup2: 11.0990, Res1: 12.6235, Res2: 13.1971
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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