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USD/TRY Hovers Below 8.90 Ahead of Erdogan-Putin Meeting, CAATSA Sanctions Risks Rise

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades -0.04% lower this morning, tracking early selling pressure on the BBDXY after yesterday's decidedly risk-off session with US equities ending sharply lower.
  • The cross ended +0.61% higher yesterday, making a third attempt at the 8.90 level – but failed to make a comprehensive breakout to the topside.
  • Focus today will be on the Erdogan-Putin meeting and potential discussion of the second S-400 purchase, which the US has threatened will trigger fresh CAATSA sanctions.
  • Although Erdogan has promised to purchase the system, the market is likely only partially priced for new sanctions.
  • However, any announcement from the US may only come overnight at the earliest or at more likely a later date if Erdogan signs off on the systems or only when Turkey takes delivery of the system.
  • Beyond S-400s, another key touchpoint will be Turkey's sale of drones to Ukraine and its non-recognition of Russia in Crimea.
  • Momentum in USD/TRY remains to the upside, but needs to move through 8.90 to take the next leg higher.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.8017, Sup2: 8.7476, Res1: 8.8949, Res2: 9.00
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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