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Free AccessUSD/TRY Pivots Around 13.50 With the CBRT Set to Pause its Cut Cycle
- USD/TRY trades +0.68% higher this morning, paring most of yesterdays move lower towards 13.40.
- Broad USD weakness supported the move lower, but the cross remains pegged within a wide 13.20-13.94 range – awaiting a breakout for a more decisive near-term direction.
- The CBRT is expected to leave rates unchanged at 14.00% this week following forward guidance in December alluding to the “complete use” of limited space left to ease.
- This implies a near-term hold on policy as the CBRT assesses the impending 1H22 surge in CPI towards 50-55%. The widening of negative real yields over the period is expected to weigh on TRY assets against a tightening external backdrop with almost 4 Fed hikes priced in for 2022.
- Moreover, Erdogan promised further “gradual” rate cuts ahead of the 2023 elections, which should do little to anchor inflation expectations.
- Analysts remain bearish on TRY and the prospects of the new measures to support stability, citing fiscal and inflationary risks as by-products.
- Focus today is on phraseology surrounding the path of inflation, with the decision itself being somewhat of a non-event.
- Intraday Sup1: 13.113, Sup2: 13.1653, Res1: 13.5745, Res2: 13.6614
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.