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Free AccessUSD/ZAR Falls Ahead of CPI, Analysts Bearish on ZAR in 2022
- USD/ZAR trades -0.19% lower this morning, tracking early selling pressure on the BBDXY.
- The cross pulled back from its 100dma yesterday to close above the 15.50 handle after failing to breach the average.
- ZAR has held up well since the start of Jan owing to a milder Omicron impact and improving terms of trade, but rising UST yields are starting to weigh on the risk proxy currency.
- CPI continues to march closer to the topside of the SARB’s 3-6% target, driven mostly by external factors (oil/food prices) over domestic demand, necessitating another +25bp hike form the SARB next week to avoid falling behind the curve on normalization as the Fed eyes 4 hikes in 2022.
- Growth remains weak in SA in 2022, with a wide output gap, narrowing terms of trade and a deteriorating current account surplus expected to weigh on ZAR this year.
- From here, traders are likely to favour fading bouts of ZAR strength set against a backdrop of higher UST yields and softer global equities/risk sentiment.
- Intraday Sup1: 15.4435, Sup2: 15.4031, Res1: 15.577, Res2: 15.6638
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.