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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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  • USD/ZAR trades -0.49% lower this morning, retracing some of Friday's weakness – which was exacerbated by thin holiday markets.
  • USD/ZAR broke its consolidation range on Friday, moving through the 61,8% Fib to test the 15.00 handle – but closed a fraction below to form a somewhat tentative bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
  • Focus this week shifts to campaigning for local elections as the ANC finds itself in a weak and divided position politically – creating room for other parties to potentially take control of key metros.
  • Beyond local campaigning, we receive unemployment, PPI, trade balance and PMI data this week which will be assessed closely for pricing dynamics and to gauge the strength of the recovery.
  • SA's covid situation continues to improve, with various groups and parties calling for the country to move to level 1 restrictions in the near-term.
  • On the international front, markets will monitor US GDP & ISM alongside Chinese Caixin PMIs towards the end of the week.
  • Momentum remains higher in USD/ZAR at this juncture, but will be dependent on whether 15.00 holds or gives way to buying pressure. Intraday Sup1: 14.8632, Sup2: 14.7955