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Free AccessUSDBRL Continues Ascent, Could Target 5.50 Resistance
- A consolidation session for USDBRL on Thursday resulted in minor gains for the pair and a close around 5.4150. Conditions remain bullish and strong resistance is seen at 5.5000, the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 high/low swing.
- Relief rally in local swap rates as the belly and long end of the DI curve shifted between 15-20 basis points lower. Brazil's Treasury significantly reduced the offer of so-called LTN and NTN-F fixed-rate notes on Thursday, with the auction announced ahead of its usual time. This had the effect of capping the sell-off, however, fiscal, political and inflationary concerns may to keep local assets on the backfoot.
- Interestingly, JPMorgan strategists described Brazil stocks as "a good buying opportunity for a short- to medium-term horizon" at current multiples. The spike in Brazil's domestic yield curve is fuelling a selloff in stocks that JPM considers "unreasonable," given the country's bottom-up fundamentals.
- Today, we have B3 Exchange stock options expiration and BCB's Campos Neto in Sao Paulo meeting with Mambu Brazil representatives followed by Brazilian Banks Association representatives.
- Of note, Brazilian lawmakers plan to modify the text of the tax reform bill in the next two weeks and attempt a vote on the proposal in the first week of September, Folha de S. Paulo newspaper reported without citing how it obtained the information. (BBG)
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.