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CANADA: USDCAD Eyes Sub 1.43 For Largest Daily Decline Since May 2023

CANADA
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  • USDCAD has seen two pronounced moves lower overnight, first on local news wire headlines that PM Trudeau may resign this week ahead of a caucus meeting on Wednesday and then the aforementioned WaPo story on more targeted Trump tariffs.
  • It sees the pair at 1.4310 (-0.9%) off a low of 1.4300, having last been below 1.43 on Dec 17, currently set for its largest one-day decline since May 2023.
  • It has breached support at 1.4336 (Dec 20 low) and 1.4320 (20-day EMA), opening 1.4232 (Dec 17 low) in a test of what had looked like a bullish continuation signal.
  • CAD had been outperforming but the broader USD weakness following the Trump headlines has seen it fall behind Antipodeans and EUR for top spot on the day.
  • BoC-dated OIS has 19.5bp of cuts priced for the Jan 29 BoC decision. Today sees serv/comp PMIs for December headline the local docket but the main domestic release likely to alter BoC pricing isn’t until Friday’s jobs report.
image
Source: Bloomberg
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  • USDCAD has seen two pronounced moves lower overnight, first on local news wire headlines that PM Trudeau may resign this week ahead of a caucus meeting on Wednesday and then the aforementioned WaPo story on more targeted Trump tariffs.
  • It sees the pair at 1.4310 (-0.9%) off a low of 1.4300, having last been below 1.43 on Dec 17, currently set for its largest one-day decline since May 2023.
  • It has breached support at 1.4336 (Dec 20 low) and 1.4320 (20-day EMA), opening 1.4232 (Dec 17 low) in a test of what had looked like a bullish continuation signal.
  • CAD had been outperforming but the broader USD weakness following the Trump headlines has seen it fall behind Antipodeans and EUR for top spot on the day.
  • BoC-dated OIS has 19.5bp of cuts priced for the Jan 29 BoC decision. Today sees serv/comp PMIs for December headline the local docket but the main domestic release likely to alter BoC pricing isn’t until Friday’s jobs report.
image
Source: Bloomberg