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USDCAD Fleetingly Clears Bull Trigger

CANADA
  • USDCAD has seen some further upward pressure ahead of US GDP/PCE Q4 revisions plus also the CAD SEPH Dec release and current account for Q4.
  • It briefly hit 1.3606, having cleared the bull trigger at 1.3586 (Feb 13 low) for a fresh YtD high, before quickly slipping 25 pips to ~1.358 at typing. We see next resistance at 1.3623 (Fibo retrace of Nov 1 – Dec 27 bear leg).
  • Citi note that “CAD interbank volumes were almost 2x the London morning average, according to our eTrading desk” attributed to a break of the 100d MA. “Ex-month end, the two key events this week are PCE/CAD GDP - our NY trader thinks participation could pick up if we test/break 1.36, otherwise, interest will remain on the lighter side while the range persists.”
  • Despite the push higher for the pair, CAD outperforms high beta peers owing to USD strength.

Source: Bloomberg

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