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USDCLP Selloff Deepens As BCCh Expectations Adjusted

CHILE
  • As expectations for the BCCh continue to be adjusted following the firmer-than-expected CPI data in Chile last week, the peso is extending its recovery which sees USDCLP dip below 950 in recent trade. As mentioned, the pair now trades within close proximity of the 50-day EMA at 947.67.
  • BBVA note the low carry had previously weighed on the currency, but the recent shift away from peak dovishness, as well as fairly stretched positioning and a relatively cheap valuation, have allowed the CLP to regain some of the ground lost. Over the past few weeks, multiple analysts had pointed to the 940-950 range as a preferential point to re-engage in USDCLP longs, however, it is unclear as to whether the latest central bank developments will have altered these views.
  • As a reminder, in yesterday’s BCCh economist survey, analysts raised their year-end CPI forecast and now anticipate a 75-bp rate cut at the upcoming meeting, although it is worth noting that just 53% of respondents expect the 75-bp move on April 2nd.
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