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USDCLP Uptrend Remains Intact, CPI Data Awaited

CHILE
  • Following yesterday’s underperformance, the Chilean peso has opened in moderate negative territory on Tuesday with USDCLP’s uptrend remaining firmly in play, and the 20-day EMA continuing to be supportive on dips at this juncture. Inflation data on Friday continues to be the most crucial data point ahead of the April 02 BCCh decision.
  • Within the Central Bank's Survey of Price Determinants and Expectations (EDEP) for the moving quarter ending in January, inflation expectations (one-year ahead) fell to 4% from 5%, while the two-year horizon was unchanged at 4%. The data compliments both the central bank’s trader and economist surveys which have shown stable inflation expectations around the target.
  • Potentially contributing to the renewed peso weakness, we noted on Monday that according to the latest poll published by Cadem, President Gabriel Boric’s disapproval rating rose at the end of February, reaching 66%, up 5ppts since the previous poll. Analysts indicate that the timing is not ideal as the administration prepares for new negotiations with lawmakers over key proposals to increase pensions and raise tax revenues.
  • Indeed, overnight El Mercurio reported that the Government has run out of support to accelerate the tax project of the fiscal pact.
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