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CNH: USD/CNH Tracks Recent Ranges, Onshore Spot Can't Sustain +7.2900 Levels

CNH

USD/CNH got close to 7.3000 late in Asia Pac trade before steadily drifting lower throughout the remainder of Thursday trade. We didn't breach 7.2800 back on the downside though and track just under 7.2870 in early Friday dealings. USD/CNH followed USD/CNY spot trends largely. This pair saw a brief move above 7.2900 but we finished up at 7.2852. The CNY CFETS basket tracker, per BBG, fell 0.25% to 100.72. 

  • BBG noted that state banks provided USD liquidity yesterday, although there wasn't a firm line in the sand. It also noted it was borrowing USDs in the 1yr USD/CNY space. Yesterday's highs in USD/CNY were the highest since the pre-inauguration period from Jan 20. Still, we are some distance from those levels for the pair, highs were seen close to 7.3240 on Jan 20.
  • USD/CNH maintains a positive basis with USD/CNY and may continue to take a lead from onshore spot developments.
  • Local equities finished higher onshore yesterday, while the Golden Dragon index rose strongly, up 2.69%, in Thursday US trade. This didn't benefit CNH sentiment though.
  • The local data calendar has FX reserves out later for Jan, which are forecast to ease modestly. More focus will be on Sunday's Jan inflation figures. CPI is expected to rise to 0.4%y/y (from 0.1%), but PPI is forecast to remain in deflation.  
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USD/CNH got close to 7.3000 late in Asia Pac trade before steadily drifting lower throughout the remainder of Thursday trade. We didn't breach 7.2800 back on the downside though and track just under 7.2870 in early Friday dealings. USD/CNH followed USD/CNY spot trends largely. This pair saw a brief move above 7.2900 but we finished up at 7.2852. The CNY CFETS basket tracker, per BBG, fell 0.25% to 100.72. 

  • BBG noted that state banks provided USD liquidity yesterday, although there wasn't a firm line in the sand. It also noted it was borrowing USDs in the 1yr USD/CNY space. Yesterday's highs in USD/CNY were the highest since the pre-inauguration period from Jan 20. Still, we are some distance from those levels for the pair, highs were seen close to 7.3240 on Jan 20.
  • USD/CNH maintains a positive basis with USD/CNY and may continue to take a lead from onshore spot developments.
  • Local equities finished higher onshore yesterday, while the Golden Dragon index rose strongly, up 2.69%, in Thursday US trade. This didn't benefit CNH sentiment though.
  • The local data calendar has FX reserves out later for Jan, which are forecast to ease modestly. More focus will be on Sunday's Jan inflation figures. CPI is expected to rise to 0.4%y/y (from 0.1%), but PPI is forecast to remain in deflation.