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JPY: USD/JPY Breaks To Multi Month Lows, Futures Activity Higher

JPY
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USD/JPY sits close to session lows in latest dealings, the pair last near 150.65/70, up around 0.55% in yen terms so far today. Yen is outperforming the rest of the G10, with broader shifts not beyond 0.10% at this stage for the other majors.

  • There has been a decent rise in JPY futures volumes, particularly for this time of day. The break sub 151.00 in the pair seeing fresh highs in volumes this week, see the bottom panel of the chart below. FX options volumes are above $1.6bn, which is higher than usual for this time of day.
  • In the cross asset space, US yields are ticking lower, although the 10yr Tsy is only off by a little over 1bps (last near 4.52%). US-JP government yield differentials are not showing sharp moves so far today, with JGB 10yr yields off earlier highs.
  • We had continued rhetoric yesterday from the BoJ around likely further tightening, although OIS pricing hasn't shifted dramatically so far this week.
  • Lower US equity futures are also likely helping at the margin, likewise the HK equity pull back, which is a factor that can sometimes weigh on higher beta plays like AUD and NZD. EUR/JPY continues to track lower as well, close to 157.00.
  • For USD/JPY, a clean break lower (sub 150.93, Feb 7 lows)  could see 150.00 targeted, while 149.69 was the Dec 9 low from last year.
  • Option expiries for NY cut later today all rest above current spot levels: Y151.00($514mln), Y151.80-00($1.1bln), Y152.45($515mln), Y154.00($3.0bln). 

Fig 1: JPY Futures, Volumes Rise On Break Sub 151.00 In USD/JPY

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USD/JPY sits close to session lows in latest dealings, the pair last near 150.65/70, up around 0.55% in yen terms so far today. Yen is outperforming the rest of the G10, with broader shifts not beyond 0.10% at this stage for the other majors.

  • There has been a decent rise in JPY futures volumes, particularly for this time of day. The break sub 151.00 in the pair seeing fresh highs in volumes this week, see the bottom panel of the chart below. FX options volumes are above $1.6bn, which is higher than usual for this time of day.
  • In the cross asset space, US yields are ticking lower, although the 10yr Tsy is only off by a little over 1bps (last near 4.52%). US-JP government yield differentials are not showing sharp moves so far today, with JGB 10yr yields off earlier highs.
  • We had continued rhetoric yesterday from the BoJ around likely further tightening, although OIS pricing hasn't shifted dramatically so far this week.
  • Lower US equity futures are also likely helping at the margin, likewise the HK equity pull back, which is a factor that can sometimes weigh on higher beta plays like AUD and NZD. EUR/JPY continues to track lower as well, close to 157.00.
  • For USD/JPY, a clean break lower (sub 150.93, Feb 7 lows)  could see 150.00 targeted, while 149.69 was the Dec 9 low from last year.
  • Option expiries for NY cut later today all rest above current spot levels: Y151.00($514mln), Y151.80-00($1.1bln), Y152.45($515mln), Y154.00($3.0bln). 

Fig 1: JPY Futures, Volumes Rise On Break Sub 151.00 In USD/JPY

Keep reading...Show less