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FOREX: USD/JPY Slippage Exposes January Low

FOREX
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  • JPY is favoured across G10 for a second session, helping press USD/JPY seemingly sustainably back below the 50-dma. The moves follow a speech from the BoJ's deputy governor Himino, who stressed that real rates in Japan remain in negative territory despite a recent rate hike - meaning the BoJ has scope to continue to tighten policy should its economic outlook unfold inline with expectations.
  • JPY price action raises the focus on key support below - crossing at 153.72 to coincide with the DeepSeek-inspired sell-off in US equities this week. This level also marks the 50% retracement for the upleg in the pair posted off December low - meaning a break below will open the next leg toward 152.55.
  • The EUR trades poorly on the back of a soft string of economic data. Both French and German GDP updates were soft relative to expectations, helping EUR/GBP slip to a new multi-week low at 0.8360, opening 0.8348 in the process.
  • NZD/USD trade this week has kept the pair inside it's primary downtrend, with the near-term outlook worsening on the failed break of the 0.5707 50-dma on January 24th. Renewed weakness here isolates downside targets at 0.5633 and - ultimately - the bear trigger and pullback low of 0.5542.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to the ECB rate decision, at which markets expect another sequential 25bps cut. The tone of Lagarde's press conference will be carefully watched, particularly to gauge any contrast with Powell's policy comments yesterday - at which the Fed adopted an effective wait-and-see approach on rates for this year.
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  • JPY is favoured across G10 for a second session, helping press USD/JPY seemingly sustainably back below the 50-dma. The moves follow a speech from the BoJ's deputy governor Himino, who stressed that real rates in Japan remain in negative territory despite a recent rate hike - meaning the BoJ has scope to continue to tighten policy should its economic outlook unfold inline with expectations.
  • JPY price action raises the focus on key support below - crossing at 153.72 to coincide with the DeepSeek-inspired sell-off in US equities this week. This level also marks the 50% retracement for the upleg in the pair posted off December low - meaning a break below will open the next leg toward 152.55.
  • The EUR trades poorly on the back of a soft string of economic data. Both French and German GDP updates were soft relative to expectations, helping EUR/GBP slip to a new multi-week low at 0.8360, opening 0.8348 in the process.
  • NZD/USD trade this week has kept the pair inside it's primary downtrend, with the near-term outlook worsening on the failed break of the 0.5707 50-dma on January 24th. Renewed weakness here isolates downside targets at 0.5633 and - ultimately - the bear trigger and pullback low of 0.5542.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to the ECB rate decision, at which markets expect another sequential 25bps cut. The tone of Lagarde's press conference will be carefully watched, particularly to gauge any contrast with Powell's policy comments yesterday - at which the Fed adopted an effective wait-and-see approach on rates for this year.