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JPY: USD/JPY Tests 50-day EMA Resistance Amid US Yield Rise, PPI Locally Today

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Yen was comfortably the weakest performer in the G10 space for Wednesday's session. USD/JPY sits around 1.25% higher, leaving the pair last near 154.45 in early Thursday dealings. Session highs from Wednesday printed at 154.80. We had stronger than expected US CPI, which boosted US yields and contributed to yen underperformance. 

  • For USD/JPY technicals, key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach at the close would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.
  • EUR/JPY surged around 1.5% for Wednesday's session, putting the pair back above 160.00 (highs were at 160.97). EUR received an additional boost in late Wednesday trade, as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
  • US-JP yield differentials continued to recover from recent lows, the US 10yr Tsy yield to 4.62%, up nearly 9bps, (session highs were at 4.66%). Fed Chair Powell cautioned not reading too much into the CPI print (+0.4%m/m core versus 0.3% forecast), ahead of the PPI print later on Thursday US time.
  • Locally today we have the Jan PPI print. Focus could also be on whether Trump enacts reciprocal tariffs late in US on Wednesday, with conflicting headlines as to whether this would be the case. 
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Yen was comfortably the weakest performer in the G10 space for Wednesday's session. USD/JPY sits around 1.25% higher, leaving the pair last near 154.45 in early Thursday dealings. Session highs from Wednesday printed at 154.80. We had stronger than expected US CPI, which boosted US yields and contributed to yen underperformance. 

  • For USD/JPY technicals, key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach at the close would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.
  • EUR/JPY surged around 1.5% for Wednesday's session, putting the pair back above 160.00 (highs were at 160.97). EUR received an additional boost in late Wednesday trade, as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
  • US-JP yield differentials continued to recover from recent lows, the US 10yr Tsy yield to 4.62%, up nearly 9bps, (session highs were at 4.66%). Fed Chair Powell cautioned not reading too much into the CPI print (+0.4%m/m core versus 0.3% forecast), ahead of the PPI print later on Thursday US time.
  • Locally today we have the Jan PPI print. Focus could also be on whether Trump enacts reciprocal tariffs late in US on Wednesday, with conflicting headlines as to whether this would be the case.