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INTERNATIONAL TRADE: VdL In LatAm As EU-Mercosur FTA Approaches Finish Line

INTERNATIONAL TRADE
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Montevideo, Uruguay for the annual two-day Mercosur summit, with the EU and Mercosur nations (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) looking to conclude a free trade agreement that has been over two decades in the making. 

  • The FT reports comments from one Mercosur nation minister saying “negotiations are underway” on finalising a deal. “It depends more than anything on the EU,”. An EU official says that “[VdL] doesn’t fly to Montevideo to come back without anything to show for it,”.
  • France is the major obstacle in the EU having vociferously opposed an agreement they say will damage EU agriculture. Poland, Austria, and the Netherlands have also raised doubts.
  • Due to the trade and political sections of the agreement being spun out separately, the former only requires a qualified majority vote to pass. To block, France would need to bring a cohort together of at least four EU members representing at least 35% of the EU population. To cross the latter threshold, a large EU member such as Italy would be needed to oppose. ANSA reported Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani saying earlier in the week "We are in favour of the deal with Mercosur, but we need to correct some points on agricultural issues," 
  • The ability of France to lead the opposition to the finalisation of a deal has been hindered by the domestic political chaos following the ouster of the Barnier gov't on 4 Dec. 
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Montevideo, Uruguay for the annual two-day Mercosur summit, with the EU and Mercosur nations (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) looking to conclude a free trade agreement that has been over two decades in the making. 

  • The FT reports comments from one Mercosur nation minister saying “negotiations are underway” on finalising a deal. “It depends more than anything on the EU,”. An EU official says that “[VdL] doesn’t fly to Montevideo to come back without anything to show for it,”.
  • France is the major obstacle in the EU having vociferously opposed an agreement they say will damage EU agriculture. Poland, Austria, and the Netherlands have also raised doubts.
  • Due to the trade and political sections of the agreement being spun out separately, the former only requires a qualified majority vote to pass. To block, France would need to bring a cohort together of at least four EU members representing at least 35% of the EU population. To cross the latter threshold, a large EU member such as Italy would be needed to oppose. ANSA reported Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani saying earlier in the week "We are in favour of the deal with Mercosur, but we need to correct some points on agricultural issues," 
  • The ability of France to lead the opposition to the finalisation of a deal has been hindered by the domestic political chaos following the ouster of the Barnier gov't on 4 Dec.