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Rate Hike Path Without Recession

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RBA
RBA: VIEW: After yesterday's AU labour market data HSBC's Paul Bloxham noted
that "the Australian economy looks to be in its best shape in 6 years. That is
what you would glean from the 2 broadest metrics of economic health, the
unemployment rate & GDP growth. Why is this coming about now? Because
Australia's economy is getting tailwind from solid global growth & the drag on
the economy from the long & drawn-out fall in mining investment & commodity
prices is coming to its end." He went on to note that "the reduction in spare
capacity in the labour market is consistent with last week's Q2 GDP data, which
showed growth hitting a 6-Year high of 3.4% Y/Y. We expect strong overall
economic growth to push the unemployment rate lower in coming quarters,
supporting a gradual lift in wages growth and for this to see the RBA begin to
lift its cash rate from Q219."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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