VIEW: ANZ: A Copy-Paste From The May MPS

ANZ note “as expected, the RBNZ raised the OCR 50bps to 2.50% today, saying “it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace”. The Committee “remains broadly comfortable” with the May MPS OCR track. We continue to expect another 50bp hike at the August Monetary Policy Statement, with more cautious 25bp moves from there as evidence mounts of a slowdown in consumption and construction. However, any upside surprises to inflation (eg in the Q2 CPI data next Monday) would up the odds of a continuation of 50bp hikes beyond August and/or a higher endpoint than the 3.5% peak we are forecasting.”