VIEW: ANZ write "now the dust has settled......>

RBNZ: VIEW: ANZ write "now the dust has settled from yesterday's OCR Review, we

are revising the timing of our cut call. We previously expected the RBNZ would

cut the OCR 25bp in November, with two further cuts to follow in early 2020.

However, the RBNZ turned explicitly dovish on the outlook somewhat earlier than

we expected, noting yesterday that "the more likely direction of our next OCR

move is down." As a result, we are now forecasting the RBNZ to cut the OCR 25bp

in August with follow-up moves in November and February. The essence of our call

remains the same: the New Zealand economy is slowing - and capacity pressures

are easing - before non-tradable inflation has sustainably reached where it

needs to be. We have also highlighted emerging global risks and the possibility

that they could change the picture abruptly. None of that has changed."