MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 14

MNI BRIEF: China Jan Yuan Loans, Financing Beat Expectations

CHINA JAN NEW LOANS CNY5.13 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY4.53 TRL

MNI BRIEF: China Machinery Expects Stable Trade In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Real Estate Loan Recovered: PBOC

MNI: China To Ensure 5% GDP Amid Export Uncertainty: CASS's Yu

MNI: US JAN INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.5%; CAP UTIL 77.8%

US JAN RETAIL SALES $723.9B VS DEC $730.3B

MNI: CANADA DEC WHOLESALE SALES -0.8%; EX-AUTOS -0.6%

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

NEW ZEALAND: VIEW: ASB Sees Soft Labour Market Driving Further Easing

NEW ZEALAND
APACNew ZealandBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Bloomberg consensus estimates for Wednesday’s Q4 labour market data are consistent with the RBNZ’s November projections with the unemployment rate forecast to rise 0.3pp to 5.1%, employment down 0.2% q/q and private wages up 0.6% q/q. ASB is generally in line with consensus but a bit lower for wages expecting a 0.5% q/q rise “given increased competition for jobs and less compensation for inflation”. It believes that the weaker labour market will result in further easing with 50bp in February and the OCR reaching 3.25% by mid-2025.

  • ASB believes that the rate outlook beyond mid-2025 “remains uncertain, with both upside and downside risks”.
  • “We continue to expect more labour market slack to accrue over the first half of 2025. The primary driver is expected to be the weaker demand for labour, with economic activity expected to remain subdued until an economic recovery unfolds later this year.”
  • “Overall employment levels are expected to edge lower until a modest recovery takes place later in 2025.”
  • “Slowing growth in the working age population and a likely discouraged worker effect should likely keep labour force growth low, which will dampen the peak in the unemployment rate.”
  • “Labour cost growth is also expected to slow as firms seek to contain the wage bill, with the balance of power still firmly in favour of employers. More moderate 2025 increases in the minimum wage (just +1.5% from April) and circa 2% inflation should see private sector labour cost growth fall below 3% by the end of 2025, consistent with core inflation settling within the 1-3% CPI target range.”
257 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Bloomberg consensus estimates for Wednesday’s Q4 labour market data are consistent with the RBNZ’s November projections with the unemployment rate forecast to rise 0.3pp to 5.1%, employment down 0.2% q/q and private wages up 0.6% q/q. ASB is generally in line with consensus but a bit lower for wages expecting a 0.5% q/q rise “given increased competition for jobs and less compensation for inflation”. It believes that the weaker labour market will result in further easing with 50bp in February and the OCR reaching 3.25% by mid-2025.

  • ASB believes that the rate outlook beyond mid-2025 “remains uncertain, with both upside and downside risks”.
  • “We continue to expect more labour market slack to accrue over the first half of 2025. The primary driver is expected to be the weaker demand for labour, with economic activity expected to remain subdued until an economic recovery unfolds later this year.”
  • “Overall employment levels are expected to edge lower until a modest recovery takes place later in 2025.”
  • “Slowing growth in the working age population and a likely discouraged worker effect should likely keep labour force growth low, which will dampen the peak in the unemployment rate.”
  • “Labour cost growth is also expected to slow as firms seek to contain the wage bill, with the balance of power still firmly in favour of employers. More moderate 2025 increases in the minimum wage (just +1.5% from April) and circa 2% inflation should see private sector labour cost growth fall below 3% by the end of 2025, consistent with core inflation settling within the 1-3% CPI target range.”