MNI BRIEF: Inflation Risks Now Shifted To Downside-BOE Ramsden

MNI: Goolsbee Says Stalled Inflation Means Wait Before Moving

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 19

MNI BRIEF: China Hog Market More Balanced In Q2 - Ministry

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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View Change: Credit Suisse: More front-loading of rate hikes to 3.00%

BOE
  • “We now expect the BoE to front-load rate hikes and bring forward our rate hike forecasts. We expect the BoE to hike rates by another 100bps from 1.75% to 2.75% by end-2022 (50bps in September, followed by 25bps in November and December), compared with 2.25% previously. We then expect one more 25bp hike such that rates reach 3.00% in Q1 2023, bringing an end to the hiking cycle sooner than previously expected (Q2 2023).”
  • “This meeting marks a change in the BoE’s stance to a more forceful reaction to inflationary pressures. This has opened the door to more outsized moves in the near term.”
  • “The BoE delivered an outsized hike at the same time as forecasting a recession, showing tolerance for recessionary risks... The BoE is thereby acknowledging that a recession is likely to be the price to pay to bring inflation under control.”
  • “The bar for the BoE to reverse hikes is high – the BoE will need to see conclusive evidence of inflation coming down significantly before reversing course (which in its forecasts happens only in Q4 2023).”
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