MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: ECB Should Be Close To 2% In Next Quarters -Centeno

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI: US NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.1%

MNI: CANADA Q3 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 79.3%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

VIEW CHANGE: TD Securities expects RBNZ on hold until May 2025

RBNZ
  • TD Securities notes that the "Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) read less hawkish than its Nov'23 MPS."
  • "We were one of the two forecasters in the market that were anticipating a hike. Our call for the RBNZ to hike was a late change we made last Friday, with the shift being prompted by the RBNZ's Household inflation expectations report released on Thursday."
  • "The RBNZ's forecast that non tradables inflation will remain around 3.5%, above the projected headline inflation this year, and implies that a rate cut is likely to be out of the question in 2024. That said, the fact that the RBNZ expects tradables inflation to fall sharply means that it would require one or two big upside prints for the Bank to consider hiking. In effect the RBNZ has set a high bar to be brought back to the table to hike."
  • "We now expect the RBNZ to remain on hold till May next year when it starts cutting." TD Securities looks for the RBNZ overnight rate to be cut 75bp in total in 2025 to end the year at 4.75%.
  • "We look to receive NZ 2yr swaps around 5.25%. On curve, we prefer steepeners but no strong views on front end x-mkt rates. In a relative sense FX offers better risk-reward, disposed to selling NZD on crosses."
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.