MNI BRIEF: ECB Should Be Close To 2% In Next Quarters -Centeno

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI: US NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.1%

MNI: CANADA Q3 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 79.3%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

VIEW CHANGE: UBS looks for 50bp in August with 5.75% terminal rate

BOE
  • Expect 50bp in August: “By the time of the next meeting in August, the MPC will have only one more inflation print… and labour market report…. Our own CPI inflation forecast foresees headline inflation falling by 0.6pp to 8.1% y/y in June; however, core inflation is expected to fall only by 0.1pp to 7% y/y, which is unlikely to ease the MPC's concerns about inflation persistence.”
  • Expect 25bp in September: “By the time of the September meeting, the MPC will have at hand July and August inflation prints… that we expect to show a more significant decline in both headline and core (UBSe: headline at 6.4% y/y and core at 6.3% y/y in August), allowing the BoE to slow down the pace of hikes again.”
  • 5.75% terminal rate: “Assuming that inflation and labour market data would then continue to improve, we would expect no more hikes by the BoE in November.”
  • UBS continue to look for the first cut in February 2024 with Bank Rate at 3.75% at end-2024 and 2.50% end-2025.
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.