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VIEW: Friday saw Bank of America Research.......>

FED
FED: VIEW: Friday saw Bank of America Research note that "market participants
have recently focused on the possibility of negative US rates. This speculation
has pushed FOMC OIS & fed funds futures with maturities in 2021 into negative
territory and resulted in a material pushback from Fed officials. The vol market
is now pricing 1y negative rate probabilities of 17.5% for end 2020 and 32% for
end 2021. We still recommend fading market pricing of negative rates - the Fed
has been very clear that they are not supportive even with downside economic
risks and there are numerous operational hurdles to implementing negative rates.
If clients want to position for a Fed that will ease further we would suggest
better risk/reward tradeoffs are in lower longer-dated real rates or higher
breakevens."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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