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VIEW: JP Morgan Notes China Inflation Data Point To Soft Consumer Demand

CHINA

China’s November CPI and PPI data were released on Saturday and came in below expectations. Headline CPI fell 0.5% y/y down from October’s -0.2% due to weaker energy and food prices. Core CPI was steady at 0.6% y/y. JP Morgan observed that the “re-opening related sectors lost further momentum” suggesting consumption remained weak.

  • JP Morgan notes that not only energy prices weighed on the PPI which fell -3% y/y down from -2.6% but also domestic industrial materials and downstream consumer goods.
  • “We expect full-year 2023 CPI inflation to average at 0.3%y/y, with 2024 CPI inflation rate ticking up modestly to average 1.0%yoy, partly reflecting lower base effect. Meanwhile, we think the PPI print likely will stay in moderate annual deflation zone through most of 1H24.”
  • “Latest fiscal policy measures will likely lend support to infrastructure investment into year-end and early next year. However, continued policy focus on the supply side suggests domestic demand-supply imbalance may remain elevated. In this sense, domestic deflationary concerns, in particular on the consumer side, may linger on.”
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