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VIEW: NAB & CBA Diverge From Consensus On Jobs

AUSTRALIA DATA

NAB is expecting a stronger than consensus 30k increase in new jobs but for the unemployment rate to be steady at 3.7%. CBA is forecasting +25k but a tick up in the unemployment rate to 3.8%.

  • CBA believes “current economic conditions continue to support further employment gains but strong population growth and the record high participation rate are adding to labour supply. For the September survey, we forecast a solid employment gain of 25k and for the participation rate to stay at 67.0%. This would push the unemployment rate up to 3.8%.”
  • NAB points to the “healthy” labour demand in its business survey but notes that increased population growth needs a September outcome around its 30k forecast to keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%.
  • NAB observes that “The average employment gain over the past 2 months is +32k and is a clearer view of employment trends. We expect the September data to show a pace of employment gains that is about enough to absorb rapidly increasing labour supply.”
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