VIEW: NAB have changed their view on the cash...>

RBA: VIEW: NAB have changed their view on the cash rate, bringing forward the

timing of forecast rate cuts to start in June. Previously, they "had forecast

the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bp in July and again in November, taking the

cash rate to 1%. We now expect the RBA to cut at the 4 June Board meeting and

again in August. We also see a risk that the RBA delivers additional policy

stimulus by early 2020, either by cutting again or opting for an alternative

policy measure. Yesterday's labour force data provided further evidence that the

economy is weaker than the RBA had expected. The unemployment rate has risen

from an eight-year low of 4.9% in February to 5.2% in April. Although employment

has remained strong, other measures point to increased spare capacity over

recent months, while forward indicators of the demand for labour have turned

down, except for the less timely ABS job vacancies series. Given low inflation,

continued weakness in the NAB business survey - where NAB's internal indicators

point to the weakness in spending becoming entrenched - and now higher

unemployment, we think the Board will now act in June and that this is likely to

be signalled in the May Board minutes and Governor Lowe's speech on Tuesday."