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VIEW: Scotia Question GDP Flash Data Quality

CANADA
  • Released tomorrow at 0830ET, Scotia expect February GDP to print 0.2% M/M (same as consensus), slightly lower than StatCan’s initial estimate of 0.3% on the grounds of a weaker tone to subsequent releases.
  • “The bigger issue may be what the agency says about March GDP if it sticks to the pattern of providing a preliminary reading” as there are “significant question marks around data reliability”.
  • “Coinciding with the PSAC strike affecting half of Federal Government employees is the cancellation of ‘flash’ or preliminary estimates for monthly manufacturing and wholesale trade this month for the month of March” and March retail sales marked a record low response rate of about 28%.

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