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VIEWS: Bank desk views on the FOMC June.........>

FED
FED: VIEWS: Bank desk views on the FOMC June meeting minutes:
- Barclays: The tone of the minutes was largely as exp., incoming data confirmed
the Fed's view that fiscal stimulus was supporting econ activity & progress
toward the dual m&ate warranted further gradual normalization.
- BNP: Overall, the June FOMC Minutes underscored our expectations that the FOMC
looks set to hike rates as long as the growth outlook remains positive with
rates likely to be near-neutral in the middle of next year. We think the Fed
will be quick to pause its hiking cycle if the outlook deteriorates.
- Nomura: The mins gave a more in-depth acknowledgement of the risks emanating
from trade pol, but provided little new info on the exp. path of MonPol.
- Rabobank: If the Phillips curve does not materialize before year end that
could erode the urgency of a 4th '18 hike. An escalation of the trade conflicts
would do the same & possibly more. Therefore, for now, we stick to our call for
3 hikes this year (Mar, Jun, Sep). As far as '19 is concerned, a continuation of
the Fed's "gradual hiking path" is increasingly looking like a MonPol mistake.
- TD: Incremental increase in concern re: trade & global backdrop is notable.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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