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Villar Says Core Inflation To Slow In Coming Months

COLOMBIA
  • Worth noting that headlines are filtering through from BanRep Governor Leonardo Villar. The central bank chief notes that inflation levels are unacceptable and that food prices in particular are still too high. He believes that core inflation will slow in the coming months and a strong COP will help ease inflation. He has also referenced that artificially low domestic fuel prices is not a good idea.
  • In their latest macro scenario, published on Tuesday, Itaú said they expect rates in Colombia to remain on hold for a prolonged period, noting the belief that that the hiking cycle has already concluded. With inflation elevated, rate cuts are not expected this year, although Itaú acknowledge that the probability of rate cuts by 4Q23 has increased amid lower domestic risks.
  • While an earlier start of the easing cycle is a possibility, Itaú have increased their 2024 year-end policy rate forecast by 50-bps (to 7.5%), given the upward revision to their inflation projection for next year.
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