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Volatile components drive CPI surprise; underlying print not that soft

UK DATA
  • Air fares also a drag here - that had been expected particularly if we had an early survey date. This year survey date was 9 July - further ahead of the school holidays than the 18 July used last year. Contributed -0.04ppt to headline (again around double that for services).
  • Food, alcohol and tobacco prices surprised to the upside, while core goods prices were also a bit stronger than expected. Energy was broadly in line with expectations.
  • Overall, we think that the larger reversal in accommodation prices was the source of almost all of the downside surprise here, offset partially by higher food and core goods prices.
  • GBPUSD initially fell 60 pips to an intraday low of 1.2820 but had reversed around 15 pips of this move at writing,
  • For the BOE, today's print doesn't really change the narrative too much at first glance. We will look at some of the "core" services prints later, but at first glance today's print if anything doesn't look that soft when you strip out the volatile components.
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